In 2025, Older-Horse Stars Poised to Rise in the West

In the aftermath of the Breeders' Cup, the potential in the older horse division has shifted so that the next big-breakout, classic-distance stars might very well rise in the West.

While it's true that divisional kingpins like 'TDN Rising Stars' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), Fierceness (City of Light), and Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna), plus GI Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (Goldencents), will be plotting 2025 campaigns from training bases farther east, those headline horses will go into their 4-year-old seasons with lofty expectations based on already-established, champion-level accomplishments.

But a pair of California-based Argentinian imports expected to race next year who only have two Grade I victories between them catch the eye as candidates to be the next big “Wow!” horses to  ascend into the A-list orbit.

Full Serrano (Full Mast) upset the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at 13-1 odds with a grace-under-pressure performance. His connections, owner Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler, had initially acquired him with the idea of trying the GI Classic. The Dirt Mile ended up being Plan B only because of a training setback, and the South American 5-year-old is expected to take aim at longer American Grade I and/or international Group 1 races moving forward.

Subsanador (Arg) (Fortify) had appeared headed to the Breeders' Cup as a “wiseguy” Classic contender after seizing a three-horse photo by a head in the GI California Crown S. Sept. 28. But an ankle injury two weeks later forced the South American 4-year-old to the sidelines. Trainer Richard Mandella said at the time that the Wathnan Racing-owned Subsanador would require time off and not surgery, with a potential return to racing by late spring of 2025.

Subsanador had notched seven dirt wins, including three at the Group 1 level, in his home country before debuting for owner Stud Facundito at Santa Anita last December out of Sadler's barn. He ran a subpar fourth as the 13-10 favorite in the GII San Antonio S. (a race in which he reportedly bled). But in the Mar. 3 Santa Anita H., Subsanador nearly wired the 10-furlong Grade I stakes at 22-1 odds, finishing second, beaten only by a head.

After the Big 'Cap, Stud Facundito accepted a private offer to sell Subsanador to Wathnan Racing. Starting for his new owner for the first time out of Mandella's stable, he ran fourth in the May 27 1 1/4-mile GII Hollywood Gold Cup S.

Meanwhile, with an eye on still having a major player in graded route races for older dirt horses on the Southern California circuit, Sadler filled the void left by the sale of Subsanador by scouting and acquiring Full Serrano for owner Hronis Racing. Full Serrano was not quite as accomplished as Subsanador had been in Argentina, requiring five starts to break his maiden, with just a listed stakes victory and Group 3 placing to his credit.

The betting public didn't put much stock into those credentials. Off at 9-1 odds in a first-level allowance/optional claimer going a mile at Del Mar Aug. 3, Full Serrano got hooked into an inside duel and drew away to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

Off that score, Full Serrano was slotted for an ambitious try in the Aug. 31 GI Pacific Classic over 10 furlongs at Del Mar. Mandella had penciled in that same spot for Subsanador, but he instead called an audible two weeks before the race and shipped to Monmouth Park for the 1 1/16-miles GIII Philip H. Iselin S. Aug. 17.

The cross-country journey to the Jersey Shore turned out to be a well-orchestrated confidence-builder for Subsanador, who unleashed a powerful far-turn move at 3-2 odds to mow down the Iselin frontrunners and score by 1 ½ lengths.

Back at Del Mar, Full Serrano charged into the Pacific Classic as a 7-1 outsider who still hadn't commanded the full respect of the bettors. But similar to how Subsanador had almost stolen the Big 'Cap on the front end half a year earlier, Full Serrano nearly ran away with the Pacific Classic before getting caught at the wire, finishing half a length behind the winner in second.

With the connections of both Argentinians sizing up berths in the Breeders' Cup Classic, it looked as if Subsanador and Full Serrano would meet in the Sept. 28 California Crown S. at Santa Anita.

But that matchup, too, was not to be. Full Serrano spiked a fever and ended up not running in the last major West Coast prep for the Classic. Subsanador, as described above, relentlessly stalked the speed and held off a determined late closer to annex the California Crown with authority.

Yet the first Saturday in November unfolded with neither Argentinian going postward in the Classic. While Subsanador was nursing the ankle injury that kept him out of the Breeders' Cup, Full Serrano was again outrunning long odds to prevail in the Dirt Mile.

Because of the structuring of the Breeders' Cup card this year that had the Dirt Mile going off as the last of Saturday's championship races-a full four races after the centerpiece Classic-Full Serrano's win, unintentionally, had a touch of “afterthought” status attached to it.

That's too bad, because it was actually one of the more powerful performances on the program, with Full Serrano forcing a fast pace from second, then emerging from a wall of contenders stacked across the track at the top of the lane to stay on late and finish with enough torque to think that longer races against the division's best are going to be well within his scope.

“I'd like to, if it works well, run in the [G1] Pegasus [World Cup Invitational S. at Gulfstream Jan. 25] and then look possibly at the Middle East for this horse,” TDN's Steve Sherack quoted Sadler as saying after the Dirt Mile win.

In the press conference after the Dirt Mile, Sadler also underscored how he's always on the hunt for distance-centric Thoroughbreds who might fit graded stakes for older horses on the SoCal circuit-and beyond.

“We're always looking,” Sadler said. “I think there's always room in this division, in California. I had a really good horse in Subsanador that [Stud Facundito] sold to Wathnan Racing. You can see there's a lot of races for these horses. We're on the eye out for them.

“He could run longer,” Sadler said of Full Serrano. “Timing this year, he missed some time. I said, 'I don't really have time to prepare him properly for the Classic, so we're going to go for the Mile.' That's what we did.

“Next year he could end up possibly in the Classic,” Sadler said.

Here's hoping that overdue scrap with Subsanador emerges somewhere along the way.

Note: Because of a reporter's error, an earlier version of this column incorrectly stated that Hronis Racing had an ownership interest in Subsanador when he debuted in the United States. The column has been corrected to state that Stud Facundito was the owner. TDN regrets the mistake.